इन्फ्लेशन ने उत्पादन को कितना प्रभावित किया है ?

Dogged by inflation

Policymakers must focus on easing price pressures so as not to derail recovery

महंगाई से त्रस्त

नीति निर्माताओं को कीमतों के दबाव को कम करने पर ध्यान देना चाहिए ताकि वसूली पटरी से न उतरे

04/07/2022 

Two recent sets of macro-economic data — the Government’s Index of Eight Core Industries for May, and S&P Global’s survey-based Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector for June — 

💐posit an economy where industrial momentum is being weighed down by relentless price pressures.

 Provisional output in May across the eight core industries,

 spanning coal to electricity, grew by an average 18.1% from the corresponding month in 2021, 

when the COVID-19 pandemic’s second wave had badly disrupted economic activity. 

Core output growth was led by double-digit year-on-year expansions

in refinery products, electricity, steel and coal, which together account for three-fourths of the index.

 The four sectors bearing weights of about 28%, 20%, 18% and 10%, respectively, 

posted expansions of 16.7%, 22%, 15% and 25.1%, respectively.

 Cement and fertilizers, too, saw robust growth of 26.3% and 22.8%.

 However, on a sequence basis, growth

in output over April 2022’s levels was significantly slower, reflecting the ‘optical illusionदृष्टि-भ्रम created by low production in the year-earlier period.

 While the index as a whole registered month-on-month growth of 2.6%, petroleum products expanded 1.9%, electricity grew by 1.5%, and steel by a relatively healthier 5%. 

Disconcertingly, cement, a key building material 

that reflects activity levels in the job-intensive sectors, actually saw output shrink 3.2% from the preceding month.

The more up-to-date June PMI data separately show price pressures dampened / weak manufacturing growth to the slowest pace in nine months. 

June’s PMI reading

eased to 53.9, from 54.6 in May, amid a broad-based slowdown in 

💐orders,

💐 production, 

💐exports and

💐 input buying

 as customers cut back on spending amid inflation worries. 

Inflation, 

in fact, so dominates companies’ assessment of the outlook that it depressed business confidence to the lowest level in 27 months. 

A majority 95% of the purchasing managers at the approximately 400 manufacturing companies polled राय जानना by S&P Global 

cited the elevated price pressures as the main reason why they foresee no change in output from current levels in the year ahead.  

The silver lining in the survey, 

though, is that manufacturers reported their first shortening of input lead times since the onset of COVID-19, 

a positive augury।भविष्यवाणी for businesses’ ability to scale up production quickly once demand revives. 

मांग के पुनर्जीवित होने के बाद व्यवसायों की उत्पादन को तेजी से बढ़ाने की क्षमता के लिए एक सकारात्मक संकेत।

The onus is on policymakers to ensure that both monetary and fiscal action is focused on reining in inflation. Anything less risks affecting recovery.

यह सुनिश्चित करने की जिम्मेदारी नीति निर्माताओं पर है कि मौद्रिक और राजकोषीय दोनों कार्रवाई मुद्रास्फीति पर लगाम लगाने पर केंद्रित है।

 कुछ भी कम होगा तो  वसूली को प्रभावित करता है।