How South Asian countries will cope with the Trump administration, even as they balance China and India, is yet to be seen
January 2025, Donald Trump will be sworn-in as the 47th President
of the United States of America. Mr. Trump’s re-election, and subsequent return to office, have triggered curiosity and “nervousness” in many countries.
new opportunities and challenges
His ideology and foreign policy goals will continue to push for
- increased cooperation,
- collaboration,
- consultation with India in South Asia.
Factors in U.S.-India ties
India - United States have enjoyed an upward
Acknowledging its leadership in the region, the U.S. even labelled India as a net-security provider in 2009.
The Biden administration
(2021-24) has emulated a similar outlook. With China’s increasing aggressiveness and assertiveness, India and the U.S. have strengthened their engagements and cooperation in South Asia.
By its Indo-Pacific strategy
the U.S. wants to supplement India’s regional leadership to counter China and maintain the values-based order.
Its cooperation with India
on the
- Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) projects in Nepal
- helping Sri Lanka out of its economic crisis
- Besides, Mr. Biden’s passive relations with Pakistan after withdrawing from Afghanistan helped India and the U.S. foster a mutual vision for the region.
The relationship has not been free of dissonance and divergences
New Delhi’s primary objective of cooperating with the U.S. is to push back against China and offer alternative development partnerships.
democracy and human rights
However, the Biden administration has selectively
- scrutinised some countries on democracy and human rights
- pushing back China.
View on Bangladesh
While India supported the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh and pragmatically engaged with Myanmar’s junta, the U.S. pressured both regimes, including imposing targeted sanctions.
This pressure nudged / take them closer to China.
sanctioning Indian firms for collaborating with Russia
and accusations of corruption against the Adani Group has faltered two Indian projects in Sri Lanka.
There could be less irritants
in his first term, Mr. Trump has continued to hint at
- burden sharing,
- reciprocity,
- nationalism,
- competing against China in his foreign policy.
What will now
he will prioritise
- pushing back against China
- giving less importance to human rights, democracy, and nation-building.
India to take the lead in the region by his help
He would also want India to take the lead in the region while the U.S. would supplement the same.
Policies on Afghanistan and Pakistan
During his first term, Mr. Trump punished and cooperated with Pakistan and urged India to take an active role in finding a sustainable solution in Afghanistan
With the U.S.’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s little strategic importance, this issue is of little dissonance / मतभेद now.
और किन किन चीजों को प्रोमोट किया गया ? पहले और अब क्या किया जा सकता है ?
During his first term, Mr. Trump promoted
- capacity building,
- development assistance,
- defence agreements,
- cooperation with the South Asian countries.
श्रीलंका को सहायता
Mr. Trump’s little focus on democracy, nation-building, and human rights (like in his first term) would also benefit Sri Lanka, where a new government is still looking for economic assistance and exploring a lasting solution to the Tamil issue.
Myanmar and the Taliban को भी मदद
This approach could benefit Myanmar and the Taliban too, although it is unclear to what extent Washington would like to engage them.
Bangladesh और अमेरिका
which is undergoing a political transition under the new regime, will face challenges and a potential reduction in assistance.
China and the region
चीन के साथ विवाद दिक्कत पैदा करेगा ?
Mr. Trump’s confrontational approach to China will also put South Asian countries under more pressure.
Washington will likely be less tolerant of South Asian countries’ and consistent playing of one great power against the other.
investments, defence cooperation, and agreements
region’s consistent politicisation and ambiguity over investments, defence cooperation, and agreements will likely invite more pressure from the U.S. to seek reciprocity.
peace between Russia and Ukraine and resolving the crisis
However, his promise of bringing peace between Russia and Ukraine and resolving the crisis in West Asia (if successful) will help weakened South Asian economies to overcome their food and fuel inflationary pressures.
South Asia
As the world braces for Trump 2.0, South Asia will not be immune to the broader structural shifts. Yet, the region is likely to see more continuity.
With India and the U.S. likely to increase their cooperation in South Asia and bridge their divergences, Mr. Trump’s ideology, leadership style, and management of great power politics will have opportunities and challenges for the region. How South Asian countries will cope with the new administration, even as they balance China and India, is yet to be seen.
source the hindu
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