राष्ट्रीय स्तर पर प्रभावी, सफल रणनीति के साथ

In much of the Hindi belt, the Bharatiya Janata Party now possesses a core ideological vote bank that ensures the party a forbidding structural advantage in any election

The results of the four-State election

(Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana), declared on Sunday, provide a evidence that might help us answer two of the most important questions relating to Indian politics.

 What are the crucial factors which best explain the continuing national dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)? 

Second, and somewhat relatedly, what explains the perennially feeble state of the Opposition (principally the Congress party)?

 दूसरा, और कुछ हद तक संबंधित, विपक्ष (मुख्य रूप से कांग्रेस पार्टी) की लगातार कमजोर स्थिति का क्या कारण है?

Explaining the BJP’s triumph

1 They have consistently  emphasis on the organisational machinery and the welfare model of the BJP to explain its electoral successes. Those factors are important but not decisive.

2 In Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the welfare plank  तख्‍़ता. rested with the incumbent पदधारी  Congress, and both Congress Chief Ministers, i.e., Bhupesh Baghel and Ashok Gehlot, respectively, commanded (as per survey evidence) broad popular satisfaction in this respect.

3 Also, in both these States, paralysing factional struggles and centralised control of the BJP had weakened its State-level leadership. 

4. in Madhya Pradesh,. 

 every electoral victory of the BJP to a certain popular welfare scheme or a superior organisational machinery. 

But These advantages, after all, had not materialised for the BJP in earlier State elections, including the Karnataka election in May.

 factor of wins

First, a dominant (and in some respects unchallenged) ideological agenda, represented by the expansive rubric of Hindu nationalism. 

Second, national leadership (of Modi) which is highly adept at reimagining and activating this ideological agenda through super-charged electoral campaigns. 

राजस्थान और छत्तीसगढ़ का एग्जांपल और जातिगत वोट बैंक

1 In Rajasthan, for example, survey evidence (Axis India Today) 

suggests three times as many upper castes voted for the BJP as the Congress.

2  The traditional divisions between Brahmins, Rajputs and Baniyas that had long characterised State politics seemed to have low. 

3  voters from the Other Backward Classes now represent the most critical support base of the party in the vast majority of the ‘Hindi belt’ States. 

4 Consider the leads commanded by the BJP against the Congress among OBC voters as in exit poll evidence (Axis India Today): 

🍁26%-point lead among the OBCs in Rajasthan, 

🍁24%-point lead in Madhya Pradesh, and a 

🍁13%-point lead in Chhattisgarh.

 dominant OBCs, support for the BJP now remains resilient and insulated through many contingent factors. 

Consider some of these factors: 

1 the two incumbent Chief Ministers belonging to OBC castes and often emphasising their identity; 

2 Rajasthan expanding the OBC quota and announcing caste census; 

3 the popularity of Mr. Baghel among farming OBC communities such as Kurmis and Sahus.

On the question of responsibility for high inflation 

resting with the national or State 

government: 

🍁54% upper castes and 48% OBC respondents say State government, as 

🍁opposed to 31% Dalits and 33% tribals.

questions relating to whether ‘freebies’ are right or wrong

OBCs (Yadav, Kurmi, Lodhi, Gujjar) appear ambiguous अस्पष्ट  and divided,

 close to the position of upper castes, in contrast to the overwhelming भाव विह्वल करने वाला  support evinced दिखाई  by the Most Backward Castes, Dalit and tribal voters.

The state of the Opposition and the Congress

Mr. Modi’s personal popularity has been perhaps a decisive factor in ensuring that no incumbent पदधारी  Congress Chief Minister of a large State has come back to power in the entirety of the Modi era (the last time was perhaps Tarun Gogoi in the Assam election in 2011).

Now, let us come to the factors explaining the weakened state of the Opposition Congress.

First, the old guard of the Congress in North India (exemplified by Kamal Nath perfectly) is now perhaps a decade past its expiry date. 

1 They prevent the party from propounding a real progressive agenda and developing a State-level leadership that can embody progressive ideas. 

वे पार्टी को एक वास्तविक प्रगतिशील एजेंडा का प्रचार करने और एक राज्य-स्तरीय नेतृत्व विकसित करने से रोकते हैं जो प्रगतिशील विचारों को मूर्त रूप दे सके। 

2 Since the old guard is resolutely status quoist, this not only harms the party by stanching intra-party competition and the emergence of a young leadership but they also veto the taking up of new ideas such as the caste census.

चूँकि पुराने नेता पूरी तरह से यथास्थितिवादी हैं, इससे न केवल पार्टी के भीतर प्रतिस्पर्धा और युवा नेतृत्व के उभरने से पार्टी को नुकसान होता है, बल्कि वे नए विचार को अपनाने पर भी रोक लगा देते हैं।

3  The caste census agenda was virtually put into pause by the Congress in three State elections 

Consider Mr. Baghel and Mr. Gehlot. 

They not just sidelined strong rival leaders (such as Sachin Pilot and T.S. Singh Deo)

 but also marginalised their State Congress organisation, preferring to operate through bureaucrats and chosen ministerial aides. 

 Meanwhile, the Congress lost much of its tribal support base in both the northern Sarguja and the southern Bastar belt of Chhattisgarh (where it had swept in the previous election). 

The Congress’s victory in Telangana provides not only an important consolation point but also a way forward

The strategy in Telangana (and the election in Karnataka earlier) has been the inverse of its strategy in northern India. 

In Telangana, the specific year-long 

🍁mobilisations among Dalit and tribal voters,

🍁 and electoral promises such as the 

🍁significant subsidy to tenant farmers, had introduced a pronounced progressive agenda into the electoral 

contest. 

Summary

In both these States, the Congress has also evolved a credible leadership which can embody such an ideological agenda.

In summary, the Congress might console itself by claiming that it has now become the leading party of southern India. 

Yet, the BJP remains the nationally dominant party, and it increasingly appears that the dominance might not face a credible rival challenge either in 2024 or even for some time beyond it.

Source the hindu