It could mark the beginning of the end of the India’s demographic dividend and a population aging before it becomes rich
As the world’s most populous country, India hopes to reap its demographic dividend due to its burgeoning youth population.
Declining school enrolment over the past decade marks the beginning of the end of this period. This means that India may become older even before becoming rich.
It is no wonder that the Unified District Information System for Education Plus (U-DISE+) data for 2022-23 and 2023-24,
which was released by the Ministry of Education on December 30, 2024,
It caused much consternation /काफी चिंता पैदा की as it showed a 15.5 million drop (6%) in school enrolment since 2018-19.
The official line versus the reality
some children are enrolled in multiple schools.
If seeding Aadhaar numbers with enrolment eliminates multiple enrolments.
This may sound plausible because it has long been suspected that some children are enrolled in multiple schools.
enrolment and its correlation with variables
However, an analysis of decade-long data (2014-15 to 2023-24) on enrolment and its correlation with different independent variables,
including the changes in the population in the age groups relevant to schooling, tells a different story.
It is a matter of concern that school enrolment has plummeted / low by 24.51 million, or 9.45%, over the past decade,
with elementary-level enrolment registering a rather pronounced fall of 18.7 million (13.45%).
Up to this level, education has been free and compulsory under the Right to Education (RTE) Act since 2009.
In comparison, secondary-level enrolment declined by 1.43 million (3.75%),
whereas senior secondary-level enrolments have increased by 3.63 million (15.46%) over the decade. This means that the decline began only recently.
Government and private schools
enrolment in government and government-aided schools
which account for more than 65% of the total school enrolment , recorded a significantly higher decline: by 19.89 million (13.8%) and 4.95 million (16.41%), respectively.
In these schools, too, the decline in enrolment
at the elementary level has been rather pronounced: 21.78 million (18.31%) in government schools and 3.85 million (24.34%) in government-aided schools.
They have also experienced lower enrolment at the secondary level, albeit at a lower rate.
Private unaided schools
their total enrolment increased by 1.61 million, or 2.03%.
Notably, however, they registered only a marginal increase in elementary and secondary level enrolment,
though their senior secondary-level enrolment surged by 1.41 million (15.55%).
Enrolment has declined across the board
and persisted since 2014-15, particularly at the elementary levels.
It may not be a coincidence that the country’s school-going population in the age group of 6-17 years has also declined by 17.30 million (5.78%) over the past decade.
The decline in the population in the age groups of 6-13 and 14-15 years, relevant to enrolment at the elementary and secondary levels, has dropped by 18.7 million (9.12%) and 2.17 million (4.35%), respectively.
the decline in the population of the relevant age group explains the 60.36% decline in enrolment.
The finding is further corroborated by the fact that the number of schools in the country has also declined by 79,109, from 1.55 million in 2017-18 to 1.47 million in 2023-14, a decline of 5.1%. These are in sync with the fact that India’s fertility rate declined to 2.01 in 2022, which is far below the replacement level of 2.10. The persistent plummeting of school enrolment is mainly due to demographic changes, which do not augur well for the country.
The social impact
A burgeoning youth population is necessary for enrolment growth, which India has been experiencing until recently. It has now entered the phase when the population bulge is shifting to the right. Since the process began only recently, it is reflected rather sharply in elementary-level enrolment. The effect will gradually but firmly be felt in secondary and senior secondary-level enrolment, and will finally impinge on higher education.
As is already the case in most developed countries, we will soon face the transition to a shrinking working-age population. This is disconcerting because it is happening sooner than expected.
Ideally, a country must reap as much demographic dividend as possible to generate much-needed income and wealth to support and sustain the burden of an ageing population. India will likely see its population age even before becoming rich.
Declining school enrolment has less to do with the change in data collection method than a shift in the demographic bulge to the right. Unless the 2021 Census, which is yet to begin, presents a different demographic trend, it could mark the beginning of the end of the demographic dividend for India.
Source the hindu
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