Budget 2024

a focus on ‘welfare’ schemes, which have been largely attributed to the Prime Minister, it remains to be seen whether voters will be impressed by this or the government’s claim of financial prudence

बजट में मोदी ने क्या कहा ? और economic survey 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly declared that “when polls are this close, the government presents an interim budget” — and went on to say with confidence of a victory in the polls, “we will bring a full budget when a new government is formed”.

Meanwhile, an ‘interim Economic Survey’, innocuously titled “The Indian Economy: A Review”, has presented a survey of post-Independence economic development, with a periodisation that divides those years into the pre- and post-Modi government eras.

 document concludes that the decade 2014-24 was one of “transformative growth”.

 Periods of significant or even high episodes of growth prior to that transformative decade are identified as wanting, on the grounds that such growth either left structural challenges unaddressed or was the result of an unsustainable credit boom that damaged the banking sector.

A eulogy  प्रशंसा भाषण

1 For years, Part A of the Budget speech has been a tiresome recounting of policies already adopted, and to be adopted, many of which have little to do with the issues of resource mobilisation and allocation and the strategy they signal, which must be the actual concern. . 

2 Scheme of free 

It is another matter that the Prime Minister has in the past dismissed such schemes as representative of a “revdi” (sweet gifts) culture when implemented by non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) State governments.

3  Part B is achieving periodically revised fiscal deficit to GDP ratios, the government will be stepping up spending on infrastructure and welfare. 

CGA data sheds more light

actual expenditure  

1  the estimates of actual expenditure under different broad heads for the first three quarters of 2023-24 provided by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), which can be compared with the estimates for the whole year provided in the Budget. 

 2 example, estimates for the Department of Rural Development, under which the all-important Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) scheme falls,

 as compared to budgeted expenditures of ₹1,57,545 crore for 2023-24, the revised estimates are placed at a much higher ₹1,71,069 crore.

3 NREGA scheme 

wages are in arrears and job card holders are being excluded from work because wage payments are to be linked to Aadhaar.

 The actual expenditure on the MGNREGA scheme was ₹1,11,170 crore in the COVID-19 year 2020-21 and ₹98,468 crore in 2021-22.

 That came down to ₹90,806 crore in 2022-23 and the revised estimate projects spending on the programme in 2023-24 at an even lower ₹86,000 crore. 

interestingly, the CGA reports that expenditure of the Department of Rural Development till December 2023 amounted to only ₹1,07,912 crore or 63% of the total projected in the revised estimates.

Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare

 under which the much-touted Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme of transfers falls. 

The budgeted expenditure for 2023-24 for that department was placed at ₹1,15,532 crore and the revised estimate is projected at ₹1,16,789 crore. 

The actual till December is placed at ₹70,797 crore by the CGA, or 61% of the revised estimate. 

Spending on the PM-KISAN scheme alone, which amounted to ₹66,825 crore in 2021-22, fell to ₹58,254 crore in 2022-23 and is projected at ₹60,000 crore in 2023-24.

There are two ways in which such deviations between actual spending till December and the revised estimates in the Budget can be interpreted

One could be that the Finance Minister has chosen to inflate revised estimates of spending to back her claim that the government has provided massive support to farmers and rural workers.

despite tardy spending till December, the government plans to launch a pre-election spending blitz in areas where it believes it can swing votes in favour of the BJP. 

But trends of the kind noted with regard to spending on the MGNREGA scheme suggest that the government believes that rhetoric can be a substitute for actual allocations. 

Thus, despite claims that free rations for 80 crore people are a huge expansion of food support under the National Food Security Act, the total food subsidy has fallen from ₹5,41,330 crore in 2020-21 to ₹2,88,060 crore in 2021-22 and a projected ₹2,87,194 crore (RE) in 2023-24.

Estimates and projections

At the macroeconomic level, the Budget’s claim is that in 2023-24, the central government has managed to ensure that its receipts other than borrowing are almost equal to that budgeted.

 This is because it has met budgetary expectations with respect to tax revenues as well as expects to raise its non-tax revenue receipts by 25% relative to budget. 

The explanation for that increase is that income from dividends and profits is slated / उम्मीद  to rise from ₹99,913 crore in 2022-23 to ₹1,54,407 crore in 2023-24 (RE). 

This is because, as compared with a budgeted ₹48,000 crore to be received as dividend/surplus from the Reserve Bank of India and nationalised financial institutions, the revised estimates suggest that the actual inflow will be more than twice that figure at ₹1,04,407 crore, largely because of transfers from the central bank. 

 capital receipts

 consisting of receipts from disinvestment from a budgeted ₹61,000 crore to ₹30,000 crore. 

It is not clear whether even the figure of ₹30,000 crore can be realised, since the CGA estimates that ‘other non-debt capital receipts’, consisting of disinvestment proceeds, just crossed ₹10,000 crore by December.

she has managed to keep the fiscal deficit, at 5.8% of GDP, marginally below the budgeted level, hoping to please financial markets with her government’s prudence.

 Whether it would please voters to give the National Democratic Alliance a “resounding victory”, as she hopes, is yet to be seen.

Source the hindu