summary of 2022

In the new evolving world, India needs a new vision

The year 2022 can perhaps be best summarised by a quote by Vladimir Lenin:

‘There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.’

1 The year began with the ostensible दिखावटी vanquishing परास्‍त करना of the COVID-19 pandemic

thanks to the remarkable collective vaccination efforts of science, business and governments across the world.

 This significant accomplishment promised to restore normalcy in daily lives and rekindle भावनाएँ, विचार आदि) फिर से जगाना the doused आग को बुझाना human spirit.

रूस यूक्रेन युद्ध

Alas, that was not meant to be. Just two months into the new year, the fallibility of the human mind reared its head in the form of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, throwing the world into disarray again. 

काश, ऐसा नहीं होना चाहिए था। नए साल में सिर्फ दो महीने, मानव मन की गिरावट ने रूस-यूक्रेन संघर्ष के रूप में अपना सिर उठाया, दुनिया को फिर से अव्यवस्था में डाल दिया। एक वैश्विक युद्ध, एक महामारी के तुरंत बाद दुर्लभ और अथाह दोनों था।

A global war, soon after a pandemic was both rare and unfathomable. Retaliatory economic sanctions and weaponisation of trade dependencies have triggered woes of inflation, recession and gas shortage in winter, making lives miserable for millions.

प्रतिशोधात्मक आर्थिक प्रतिबंधों और व्यापार निर्भरता के शस्त्रीकरण ने सर्दियों में मुद्रास्फीति, मंदी और गैस की कमी के संकट को जन्म दिया है, जिससे लाखों लोगों का जीवन दयनीय हो गया है।

‘Foe trade’ and an aggressive China

1 The era of innovative consumer technologies from America and Europe, 

mass produced in Taiwan, Korea and Japan, and consumed in China, Brazil and India, seems to be nearing its end. 

2 America

🌺is now championing trade restrictions against its enemies,

🌺 promoting trading blocs among its allies 

🌺and incentivising domestic production through large financial assistance.

🌺Results 

Trusted free trade among nations has turned into distrustful ‘foe trade’, leading to formation of ‘friend trade’ groups and the glorification of ‘economic nationalism’.

3 India’s explosive exports growth

🌺 over the last four decades has helped create millions of jobs, 

🌺bring in valuable foreign reserves,

🌺 and spurred domestic production 

and consumption.

🌺 India stands to gain from the established trade order and can ill afford to get squeezed in the emerging bipolar world of western and Russia-China trading blocs.

भारत स्थापित व्यापार व्यवस्था से लाभ प्राप्त करने के लिए खड़ा है और पश्चिमी और रूस-चीन व्यापारिक गुटों के उभरते हुए द्विध्रुवीय विश्व में निचोड़ने का जोखिम नहीं उठा सकता है।

चीन 

1 incomprehensible military aggression by China against India

In the midst of such profound global changes comes the sudden, and incomprehensible military aggression by China against India. 

China’s advances into Indian territory are both undeniable and unacceptable.

2 larger motive than just territorial interests

 The timing and rationale of China’s military threat are incomprehensible military aggression by China against India and, purportedly, has a larger motive than just territorial interests across India’s borders. 

3 China has managed to engineer a realignment of the world order

🌺through strategic use of debt diplomacy, 

🌺economic power

🌺 and a ‘common enemy’ doctrine.

4 reshaping of global forces.

 The Chinese threat is neither just a border dispute with India nor an isolated bilateral conflict. It marks a fundamental reshaping of global forces.

5 China’s economic might as the factory of the world 

is what gives it the confidence and the power to indulge किसी को उसकी मनचाही या ज़रूरत की चीज़ देना in such aggression.

6 क्या किया जा सकता है ?

 Knee-jerk reactions such as trade restrictions and economic sanctions against China by western powers are blunt measures that will backfire. 

पश्चिमी शक्तियों द्वारा चीन के खिलाफ व्यापार प्रतिबंध और आर्थिक प्रतिबंध जैसे घुटने टेकने वाली प्रतिक्रियाएँ कुंद उपाय हैं जो पीछे हटेंगे। 

The counter to a Sino-centric world order is an economically powerful India.

चीन केंद्रित विश्व व्यवस्था का प्रतिकार आर्थिक रूप से शक्तिशाली भारत है।

Social harmony is a necessary condition

1 what is  strongest response to China

Factories employing millions of people producing billions of dollars of goods and services for the world in a thriving India is the strongest response to China.

2  But social harmony

is a necessary condition for India’s rise as an economic power.

 Factories cannot afford to differentiate amongst people of multiple identities working together, sowing distrust and hatred on the basis of workers’ religion, identity, caste or class. Ability is all that matters.

3 internal security

If we accept that India’s economic power holds the key to its internal security, then it follows that India’s social harmony is the foundation of its edifice शानदार.

It is in this context that the ongoing Bharat Jodo Yatra 

1 led by Rahul Gandhi is significant. Sadly, India’s communal harmony is under threat, but of our own doing.

2  There is a lurking छिपकर बैठना, विशेषतः किसी पर हमला करने के लिए danger of one stray communal incident erupting into large-scale violence and unrest. 

3 A communally divided India on tenterhooks जाल is a gift to our enemies. 

4 Tormented मानसिक या शारीरिक पीड़ा पहुँचाना sections of our society 

can be easy targets for a preying attacker.

5  The yatra is a momentous effort to heal communal wounds and strengthen the nation’s social fabric to help surmount the geopolitical and economic challenges facing the nation and the world.

6 Seemingly rational pursuits of peace and prosperity 

are not the sole or even primary motivator for all nations and leaders. We must contest this ‘no more shared rational pursuits’ premise for the emerging new world order.

It is time to re-imagine India’s overall strategy 

and re-evaluate our normative policy framework in this backdrop of an irrational world. 

We need a holistic military, diplomatic, social and economic strategy and not be afraid to challenge conventional wisdom.

There is an imminent need to modernise and augment our defence capabilities with state-of-the-art weaponry and not be held hostage to antiquated military purchase norms and processes.

A belligerent and hostile China will reaffirm

who India’s active friends are and who merely observes from the sidelines.

 The established foreign policy doctrine of non-alignment 

may now conflict with India’s growing need for trade and market access in the new economic world order, and may need to be re-envisioned.

 India needs a bolder geo-economic strategy 

to gain preferential access to unique technologies and capital from other nations in return for domestic market access.

India’s politics will need 

to craft a new social contract with citizens, as the traditional tools of welfare and governance turn creaky and the gap between the haves and have-nots widens further. 

India’s economic road map

 will have to factor in environmental concerns, move away from the monopolies model of private enterprise, carve a new inclusive, labour market focused economic development path of production, and not chase financialisation-driven GDP growth that has lost relevance for the common person.

Look at decentralisation

India’s political governance model 

calls for greater decentralisation and federalism reforms to cater to widening divergence among States. 

Centralisation 

played a critical role in holding together and building the republic in the first half a century after Independence.

 The time has now come to let go and move away from a ‘one nation one policy’ mindset.

 Stronger institutions are a necessary condition for greater decentralisation. Reforming public institutions with more powers, autonomy, resources and accountability is essential.

In a nutshell, the nation needs a new vision in the new world

But the foundation for this new vision is a harmonious and inclusive society that embraces India’s unique plurality. 

 It requires the collective efforts

of all leaders across the political spectrum to come together and craft a new vision, for which the onus rests with the Prime Minister. 

We sincerely hope for the sake of our beloved country and its beautiful people that a new awakening awaits.

Source the hindu