Russian war and India as a mediator

 There are indications that New Delhi is engaging with all parties and developing its role as an interlocutor but there are the ‘ifs, ands, or buts’

Two years after the Government of India held that “Europe’s problems are not the world’s problems” to distance New Delhi from the theatre of the Russia-Ukraine war, speculation about its determination to help resolve the war has gained traction.

 Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv, a possible meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations next week and with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS Summit next month, as well as the travels of National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar all point in this direction.

India is engaging with all parties and developing its role as an interlocutor.

The question then is how far does Mr. Modi’s plan to play peacemaker stretch? And where can India’s role be most effective?

India’s role, the full picture

India’s advantages and reasons

1 engaging both sides  

it is one of the few countries that is engaging both sides of the geopolitical schism over Ukraine, i.e., the West as well as the Eurasian leadership. 

2 non-alignment and strategic autonomy 

India’s long-held beliefs on non-alignment and strategic autonomy, which the Modi government has largely carried forward during the war with its abstention votes at the UN and refusal to accept western sanctions, help its image as an “honest broker” or mediator.

3 voice for the Global South and its G-20 presidency  

India is an important voice for the Global South and it succeeded in ensuring its G-20 presidency focused on war outcomes such as energy and food security that matter to the developing world rather than the war itself.

4 increase in bilateral trade 

 As a result, the increase in India’s intake of Russian oil, leading to a six-fold increase in bilateral trade, has been projected as an assertion of its principles rather than profiteering.

Modi vs Nehru

In his third term, Mr. Modi would no doubt like to build a global legacy, much like India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was able to do by mediating between the USSR and Austria 

for the withdrawal of Soviet troops in exchange for a policy of neutrality, or by India leading international efforts and UN commissions on wars in Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia.

 Massive escalation

Russian troops remain entrenched in about a sixth of territory of the country for more than two years now, while Ukrainian forces are successfully holding the line outside of these areas. 

This indicates that any change in the status quo could come only from a massive escalation in the war. 

Mr. Zelenskyy’s move to occupy Russian territory in Kursk was a novel tactic, but was perhaps only meant to be used as a bargaining chip or “leverage” as the Ukrainian President put it, in future negotiations.

 Zelenskyy will be seeking a further escalation: 

western permissions for the long-range Storm Shadow missiles, and Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACM) for airstrikes deep inside Russia, which he believes is receiving lethal weaponry from Iran and North Korea. 

Mr. Putin has said in no uncertain terms that if the West clears the request, it would be a declaration of direct war between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia.

 US elections results

An alternative outcome could also arise from the U.S. elections on November 5 — a win for former U.S. President Donald Trump may mean the U.S. curtails its expenditure in support of Ukraine, 

seen positively by Mr. Putin, and more sobering for Ukraine and Europe, while a win for U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris will indicate continuity in the U.S.’s support.

An offering that would have to stand out

Second, New Delhi would need to offer its own proposal for conflict resolution 

Mr. Putin rejected the Bürgenstock Communiqué, that India also disassociated from, which dwelt on the issues of nuclear safety, humanitarian access and the exchange of prisoners.

Mr. Zelenskyy recently rejected the six-point Brazil-China joint proposal that proposed the same measures towards a path of “de-escalation”. 

China has, in the past year successfully brokered agreements between Iran and Saudi Arabia and Hamas and Fatah. 

Hungary too, a country with access to both sides, made a ceasefire proposal which has been rejected by Ukraine.

India’s role During their conversation

Mr. Zelenskyy told Mr. Modi that India is simply too large and important a country to seek a role as “messenger” between Moscow and Kyiv. 

In any case, recent rounds of prisoner exchanges between the two countries make it amply clear that there are enough channels to relay information between them.

India serving as a mediator 

or even the host for a summit between the two sides, although given India’s recusal from the Swiss Peace Summit outcome, may be a task left to one of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries that have been a part of the process thus far. 

Consistency would be the key word

government is dealing with internal conflicts 

including 

• Manipur, 
•  economy through international engagement, 
• regional turbulence 
•  other important issues, it could justifiably question the need to spend its resources on this conflict. 

Externally civilian casualties

when civilian casualties from Israel’s bombardment of Gaza or from the civil war in Sudan are far more than those estimated to be non-military casualties in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the question over which conflict India chooses to intervene in poses a challenge. 

In addition, India will be judged on the consistency of its message- if “dialogue and diplomacy” are indeed the “only way forward”, then it is difficult to account for the Modi government’s refusal to consider an opening with Pakistan, for example

 As a country of considerable consequence in the world, one that straddles the West and the east, the Global North and South, and as the only country that is member of both the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, United States) and BRICS, India is uniquely positioned. 

Source the hindu