पडोसी देशों में डेमोक्रेसी लाने में भारत की भूमिका
In some instances, it was New Delhi’s missteps that affected it, while in others, it was a case of events spiralling out of control
India credits itself a bit too much in its ability to determine the outcome of events in its neighbourhood.
somwe time ago - democracy, with all its imperfections, was taking root in India’s neighbourhood
Change in a short span
2008-10 पडोसी देशों में डेमोक्रेसी लाने में भारत की भूमिका
1 In December 2008 in Bangladesh, after military rule under General Moeen U. Ahmed, Sheikh Hasina became Prime Minister (2009) riding on the strength of a massive mandate, especially from women and youth.
2 Relation with bangladesh
In fact, then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee played a quiet “catalytic” role in the holding of elections in Bangladesh, free of army interference.
And, over 15 years, India and Bangladesh forged a mutually beneficial partnership, with Ms. Hasina’s government displaying sensitivity to India’s core interests.
3 In May 2009 in Sri Lanka
after 33 years of its existence, the group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), was finally defeated in no small measure due to India’s sustained engagement with Sri Lanka — a role which has not been adequately acknowledged.
Without the sword of the LTTE over India’s head, India could look forward to closer relations with a united Sri Lanka.
In October 2008 in the Maldives
after 30 years of President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s autocratic reign, the first multi-party democratic elections were held where Mohamed Nasheed took over as President.
India did its bit to stabilise this nascent democracy. In spite of ups and downs, the last three consecutive elections have ushered in three different Presidents, showing the democratic maturity of the Maldives in nearly 16 years.
In 2010 in Myanmar
after 20 years of military rule, elections were held in which the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) came to power.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was freed after phases of of imprisonment. Subsequently, her National League for Democracy (NLD) had landslide wins in 2015 and 2020, indicating a strengthening of democratic roots.
Even Pakistan
elected a civilian government in 2008, sending President Pervez Musharraf into exile.
2008-10 भारत ने काफी पैसों से भी मदद किया ?
2008-10 also witnessed an exponential increase in India’s development assistance to its neighbours,
- rebuilding of northern Sri Lanka
- extending the biggest ever line of credit to Bangladesh, of $1 billion,
- or in connectivity projects in Myanmar
- or as budgetary support to stabilise the fledgling democracy in the Maldives.
The present situation
२०२४ में बांग्लादेश
Just when one thought that four consecutive elections in Bangladesh would make democracy irreversible, Ms. Hasina’s government collapsed in August 2024 under the weight of its own
- democracy deficit,
- an economic downturn
- and a violent quashing of student protests that anti-Hasina forces joined in later.
Maybe yes, given that this happened over a period of time. But it is difficult to decide how much a leader should be pressured to change course without seeming to interfere in a country’s internal affairs, especially when there is appreciation of each other’s national interests.
While India’s bias toward Ms. Hasina
is under the scanner, let us be realistic. Individuals do matter in relations between countries as much as institutional links. But that did not preclude India from maintaining regular engagement with Bangladesh’s Opposition, which it failed to do.
In 2022, Sri Lanka
had its own “Bangladesh” moment when President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka, unable to control a series of mass anti-government “Aragalaya” protests led mostly by apolitical irate public and youth.
Its democracy and the economy took a severe beating, the after-effects of which are still being felt in Sri Lanka.
Could India have anticipated it? But what India did in the aftermath was commendable. India’s timely and generous bailout package of about $4 billion saved the economy.
. India has even made peace with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a right-wing party which has usually been anti-India in its stand.
In 2024, the results of elections in the Maldives
caught India on the wrong foot as it nearly made the same mistake as in Bangladesh — not anticipating President Mohamed Muizzu’s huge win and not having engaged with him earlier. India is now making amends.
after Maldives’ first elections when President Nasheed (2008-12) was in trouble without a majority in the Majlis, India did not hesitate to “counsel” him on the importance of respecting the “coalition mantra”.
However, he was not persuaded and ended up losing his presidency. So much for India turning a blind eye to the “mistakes” of its friends.
In Myanmar
१ after three consecutive elections, the military took over yet again in February 2021, despite the 2020 elections having given the NLD a huge mandate.
२ Now, Myanmar’s military is riding a tiger and unable to dismount, with the Opposition and ethnic groups gaining ground. The conflict is spilling over into India’s north-east.
३ It has renewed India’s dilemma on whether to stay with the military to protect itself from insurgents using Myanmar soil or to side with the rejuvenated Opposition forces fighting for change, since India cannot afford to lose Myanmar in this balancing act.
In August 2021 अफगानिस्तान
, the Taliban forcibly captured power after two decades, turning the clock back in Afghanistan.
India had anticipated this and even cautioned the United States, but the U.S. kept its “strategic” partner India out of its engagement with Taliban for fear of offending Pakistan. Now, India is fending for itself from the fall-out.
And Pakistan
saw its civilian government toppled in 2022, widely seen as at the army’s behest as in the past.
New Delhi’s response as key factor
क्या India ने अभी तक बेहतर किया है ?
it
- bailed out Sri Lanka financially when Colombo needed India the most;
- extended friendship and patience with the new Maldivian government
- expressed willingness to do business with Taliban in Afghanistan to protect India’s geopolitical interests,
- re-extended the hand of friendship to an unstable but democratic Nepal after an attempt to pressure Nepal boomeranged on India.
But Myanmar and Bangladesh का चैलेंज भारत कैसे हैंडल करेगा
given their centrality to India’s interests, pose serious challenges — Myanmar is veering toward a possible civil war and Bangladesh is struggling to get back on its democratic feet.
In Myanmar, used as India is to an uneasy alliance of the army and NLD, India needs a different approach with ethnic groups getting into this mix.
With Bangladesh
India needs a new understanding with parties, not all of whom are favourable to India and keep out external anti-India forces waiting to take advantage of the situation.
Even the Taliban hesitated to attack Indian projects over the last two decades since it benefited the people.
All these point to the fact that India requires more sustained engagement with its neighbours and in the region, which is discovering that once the genie of democracy has been freed, it is difficult to put it back in the bottle.
Source the hindu
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