upcoming solar cycle Prediction

 new method to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle

What is solar cycle?

Astronomers from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA) have found a new method to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. Besides, their research can also help in space weather forecasting.

The astronomers have discovered a new correlation using 100 years of solar data from the IIA’s Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.

The intricacies / details of the solar cycle and forecasting space weather are important fields of current research, including in India.

What is space weather?

“The main components of space weather are the solar wind, coronal mass ejections, and solar flares. 

They can compress the magnetosphere of the Earth and trigger geomagnetic storms, which can affect 

• communication and power transmission, 
• damage spacecraft electronics,
• and threaten the lives of astronauts.

Thus, space weather has a profound influence on modern civilization,” said the Department of Science and Technology.

Astronomers use many different ways to forecast the strength of the next solar cycle

 This includes theoretical calculations based on dynamo models, extrapolations, precursor methods, etc.

The precursor method uses the value of some measure of solar activity at a specified time to predict the strength of the following solar maximum.

Number of sun spots

In a recently-published work, IIA researchers discovered that the width of the supergranular cells on the solar surface during the minimum year of the solar cycle is related to the number of sunspots seen during the subsequent solar cycle maximum.

 This simple method can be used in space weather forecasting.