Two wars, the consequences for America’s standing

 Two wars, the consequences for America’s standing

To what extent the Ukraine and Gaza wars will be driven by U.S. election-year politics or their own future course,

is unclear

The recent speech by United States Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer : 

calling for a new government in Israel was the equivalent of a political earthquake hitting U.S.-Israel ties . 

The Democratic Senator is himself Jewish and has had one of the longest relationships with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu .

ट्रम्प क्या करने वाले हैं  ? 

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Mr. Trump had told him that he would suspend military aid to Ukraine when he came to power.

 Trump would seek to “quickly negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war”

 and that the former President believed that the Europeans should pay more for the cost of the conflict.

The U.S. and the Ukraine war

 U.S. is hurtling towards its epochal / मुख्य presidential elections eight months from now. 

To what extent they will be driven by election-year politics or their own future course is unclear. 

But, for better or for worse, the U.S. is playing a key role in both of them and their outcomes could have consequences for the standing of the country, regardless of who wins in November 2024.

अमेरिका ने उक्रेन की कितनी मदद की ? 

1 The U.S. has provided some $75 billion in military and civil aid to Ukraine since February 2022.

2  Most of the aid has been used in 

• weapons purchases, 
• keeping the government functional
•  and its humanitarian requirements. 

• bulk of the military aid has been spent in the U.S. to purchase equipment ranging from Stinger missiles to the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) weapons systems and artillery ammunition.

3  But, since the end of last year, an additional $60 billion assistance has been stuck in the wrangling of the U.S. Congress. 

The European Union (EU) का सपोर्ट 

१ The European Union (EU) has committed some €144 billion in aid to Ukraine. 

२ Of this some 

• €93 billion is financial and economic support,
•  €33 billion in military support and 
• €17 billion in supporting refugees within the EU; 
• another €12 billion is in financial, economic and humanitarian support by individual EU States. 

३ But the Europeans are not near providing the level of military assistance that the U.S. has.

अमेरिका आगे क्या करेगा ? 

It is unlikely that the U.S. will send further military aid in 2024, though the Senate has approved a new package, but it needs to pass the fractious House of Representatives.

US  obviously does not want a Russian victory, but it also does not want the war to expand or to drag on. 

The situation on the ground is none too good for Ukraine

 With the failure of its summer offensive last year, it has not been able to find a viable strategy to counter the Russians. 

Shortages and poor tactics have led to a highly publicised defeat in Avdiivka.

रूस से  क्या सीख ले  सकते थे ? 

 They have a clear edge in electronic warfare and artillery, and are using their Unified Gliding and Correction Module (UMPK) Glide bombs to devastating effect on the war front. 

On the other hand, the Ukrainians are short of key artillery ammunition, with a substantial portion of it having been diverted for Israeli use by the Americans last October.

Israel and its Gaza actions

अमेरिका की  है अब ? 

१ U.S. President Joe Biden himself and Mr. Schumer are raising issues about Israeli strategy, or the lack of it.

 २ Former U.S. official Richard N. Haass syas : 

 “Israel’s actions have left it worse off, at a great cost to itself and its relationship with the US and in the lives of innocent Palestinians.” 

क्या  होगा और आगे की  क्या सोच है  ? 

These actions and comments reflect that change in public sentiment towards Mr. Netanyahu in the Democratic Party and the liberal Jewish-American community.

Having destroyed most of Gaza, Israeli forces are now threatening the last corner of the strip — Rafah. 

Mr. Biden has warned : because it would most certainly result in a large number of civilian casualties. But Mr. Netanyahu seems to be motivated by just one impulse — his own political survival.

 सरकार की सोच 

Israel needs to articulate a future that leads to a sustainable peace in the region and an Israel-Palestinian reconciliation. 

Indeed, Mr. Netanyahu’s strategy of supporting Hamas in the past was aimed at splitting the Palestinian opinion and using the fear of Hamas to shape Israeli public perceptions.

On both Ukraine and Israel, the future U.S. approach appears to be clouded

१ Though we know the trajectory of the Biden policy and its shape, it is still difficult to predict the future because the earlier bipartisan approach to foreign, especially security policy is now history. 

२ younger Americans are less positively inclined to Israel than the older ones. 

३ Indeed, last October a YouGov poll found that more people between the ages of 18 to 29 empathised with Palestinians than with Israelis.

The Trump factor

 1 Besides hardware, Ukraine is receiving substantial intelligence support from the U.S. in the form of real-time information on Russian deployments. 

 2 Americans see it as , Ukrainians are weakening one of their major adversaries. The massive loss of personnel and equipment will without doubt temper Moscow’s future policies towards the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

3 One must recall that it was trump  who decided to recognise Jerusalem as the Israeli capital in the place of Tel Aviv.

But a Trump victory

which will change the political calculus in Washington DC, has implications for Ukraine and the NATO alliance. 

The Europeans are rushing to fill the American breach, but it is a case of too little and too late. 

The momentum in the war is with the Russians right now and if Ukraine is not able to regain it, there is every possibility of a Ukrainian collapse if the U.S. decides to step aside.

This would have wider consequences such as undermining the role of the U.S. as a guarantor of European security. American unreliability will also affect its alliance relationships in the Indo-Pacific — with South Korea, Japan and the Philippines, and its growing partnership with India.

source the hindu